There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is this more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the Sunday slate of games in Week 12.
Top NFL Player Bets To Bet Today
All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.). For example, if your unit is $100, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $120 to win $100. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $100 to win $120.
It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: what line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.
Last week’s plays (including the PFN Discord plays) went 8-8, losing 1.05 units. Last week was our first losing week in over a month. Losing weeks are inevitable in sports betting, and when they happen, we hope they are as limited as last week was. If the worst we do is lose a couple of units, then things are going quite well.
Fortunately, Week 12 already started off with a bang. No. Not a bang. An explosion. That’s how good our Thanksgiving was. We went 7-1, winning 5.86 units. That puts us at 112-82, +27.03 units on the season. Let’s see if we can make Sunday as good as Thursday.
To get my weekly NFL prop bets as soon as I place my bets, you can find them in the betting channel on the official PFN Discord or by following me on Pikkit @KatzFF.
Latavius Murray Under 63.5 Rushing Yards -120 (BetMGM)
One of my favorite types of props to attack is the under on running backs poised to see increased playing time. Often, the line is inflated. That’s exactly what I believe we have here.
Latavius Murray is going to start for the Broncos now that Melvin Gordon has been released. His backup will likely be Marlon Mack, who hasn’t played an offensive snap this season for any of the three teams he was on.
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Murray may very well dominate touches in this backfield. But how many more do we really think he’s going to get? Murray carried the ball 17 times last week. Yet, he only amassed 49 yards. In fact, he’s carried the ball double-digit times four times this season, and the best he’s managed is 66 yards.
Simply put, I don’t think Murray’s rushing yards total should be more than a couple of yards higher than it’s been. Yet, we’re getting an extra 20 yards or so to play with.
It’s worth noting the Carolina Panthers allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game. Even so, I just don’t think Murray is good enough to take advantage. His best game — the 66 yards rushing — came against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have a worse run defense than the Panthers. That’s about as good as I think it gets.
- My line
63.5 -120 (BetMGM) - Current line
63.5 -117 (BetRivers) - Lowest I’d go
60.5
Latavius Murray Longest Rush Under 14.5 Yards -115 (DraftKings)
This one doesn’t require any further explanation. Everything I said above applies here. Furthermore, Murray doesn’t have a single rush this season longer than 14 yards. If it happens today, more power to him.
- My line
14.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
14.5 -114 (FanDuel) - Lowest I’d go
14.5
Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards -120 (BetMGM)
Since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback, Terry McLaurin has had at least 73 yards in three of five games. In the other two, he had 56 and 55 yards — so not too far off from this number.
The Falcons allow the fourth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. They have a pass-funnel defense, and I’m expecting the Commanders to throw. McLaurin is Heinicke’s guy. He should fly over this number.
- My line
60.5 -120 (BetMGM) - Current line
60.5 -115 (BetMGM) - Highest I’d go
63.5
Christian Watson Under 42.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)
It feels like blasphemy to fade Christian Watson. What exactly am I thinking here? Watson has arrived over the past two weeks. He’s caught four balls in each game for 107 and 48 yards, respectively. Five of his last eight receptions have gone for touchdowns.
That’s all well and good, and I do think Watson is legit. With that said, he’s still not Aaron Rodgers’ WR1 — that honor belongs to Allen Lazard.
Lazard has one more target than Watson over the past two games, where Watson played starter snaps.
Additionally, the Eagles allow the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers. I just think Watson is going to have a much tougher time this week than he did against the Titans’ bottom-of-the-barrel pass defense, or the Cowboys on a day where Dallas just played flat.
- My line
42.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
40.5 -114 (FanDuel) - Lowest I’d go
40.5
Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 Interceptions -120 (DraftKings)
Surprisingly, Trevor Lawrence has actually only thrown a pick in four of his 10 games this season. But if you look a bit closer, when he throws an interception is not all that surprising.
Lawrence has thrown the ball to the wrong team against the Commanders, Eagles, Texans, and Broncos. Two of those teams have excellent pass defenses, while the Texans and Commanders are far from terrible.
This week, the Jaguars are underdogs against a stout Ravens pass defense that has recorded an interception in all but two games this season. They should force Lawrence to make a mistake in this one.
- My line
-120 (DraftKings) - Current line
Same - Highest price I’d pay
-125
Alvin Kamara Under 49.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
This is my favorite prop of the week. Alvin Kamara has quietly been awful this season. He’s averaging just 4.1 yards per carry and has just two games on the season with over 62 rushing yards. In his last five games, he’s hit 50 yards rushing just once.
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The 49ers have the best run defense in the NFL. They allow 63 rushing yards per game and just 3.2 yards per carry. I’m expecting Kamara to have nowhere to go, and it’s not like Kamara can make defenders miss — he has an evaded tackles rate outside the top 40.
The once-elite running back is rapidly declining, and I don’t think many football fans have accepted it yet. I’m thinking Kamara has something like 12 carries for 38 yards in this one.
- My line
49.5 -114 (FanDuel) - Current line
50.5 -114 (FanDuel) - Lowest I’d go
48.5
AJ Dillon over 28.5 Rushing Yards -120 (BetMGM)
Easily my worst call of the season was AJ Dillon doing anything remotely productive. With that said, 28.5 is just absurdly low. Dillon hasn’t played well, but he’s not this bad.
I think Dillon’s line is this low because he had six carries for 13 yards last week, but that was against the Titans’ elite run-stopping unit. This week, the Packers get an Eagles defense that’s a bit of a run funnel. They allow the 13th-most rushing yards per game.
Despite Dillon’s struggles, he has hit 30 yards rushing in all but two games this season. He should be a safe bet for 8-10 carries, so he doesn’t even need to be efficient to hit this over. And if he does happen to bust off a big run, then he will hit this number easily.
- My line
28.5 -120 (BetMGM) - Current line
28.5 -114 (FanDuel) - Highest I’d go
30.5
Travis Etienne Jr. Under 16.5 Rush Attempts -115 (DraftKings)
We’ve now seen four weeks of Travis Etienne Jr. as the clear feature back for the Jaguars. He’s posted carry counts of 14, 24, 28, and 11. On the surface, this looks like a 50/50 bet, but by digging a bit deeper, we can find a pattern behind Etienne’s carry count.
Etienne had 24 and 28 carries in a one-score late fourth-quarter loss to the Broncos and a win over the Raiders. He had 14 and 11 carries in losses to the Giants and Chiefs.
This week, the Jaguars are likely to lose to the Ravens, and as a result, I don’t think they will be able to keep pounding Etienne on the ground. Only Saquon Barkley has carried the ball more than 16 times against the Ravens. Etienne should stay under 16.5 rush attempts.
- My line
16.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
16.5 -114 (FanDuel) - Lowest I’d go
16.5
Kenneth Walker III Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards -120 (DraftKings)
The Raiders definitely have a pass-funnel defense, but it’s not like they’re the Titans, who are elite against the run. For the most part, good running backs have had success against them — the most recent of which was Jonathan Taylor.
Kenneth Walker III is an elite running back. He’s also a splash play machine with eight runs of over 15 yards this season.
Walker couldn’t get anything going against the Bucs two weeks ago, but he saw at least 18 carries in his four preceding games. Well-rested coming off the bye in a likely shootout, I think Walker busts off multiple big runs in this one, hitting this number more than once.
- My line
15.5 -120 (DraftKings) - Current line
Same - Highest I’d go
15.5
Kareem Hunt Under 30.5 Rushing Yards -115 (PointsBet)
For a little over a month now, the Browns have very clearly marginalized Kareem Hunt’s role. After carrying the ball at least 10 times in each of his first five games, Hunt has hit double-digit carries just once in his last five.
Not so coincidentally, the Browns have won just one of their last five. Care to guess which game Hunt saw 11 carries in?
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In Jacoby Brissett’s presumptive final start of the season, the Browns are home underdogs against the Bucs. Hunt hasn’t seen more than six carries in any of the Browns’ last four losses, and Cleveland should lose this game.
If Hunt is carrying the ball only 5-6 times, he will need to average over 5 yards per carry to go over this number. The Bucs allow 4.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and even that is a bit of a misleading number, as Tampa still has an elite run-stopping unit. Two weeks ago, they limited Walker to just 17 yards on 10 carries.
- My line
30.5 -115 (PointsBet) - Current line
Same - Lowest I’d go
29.5
Bonus Anytime Touchdown Props
If I counted touchdown props as part of my official record, we actually would’ve been up last week. I had two touchdown props in Week 11, and they both hit, winning 2.41 units.
My anytime touchdown props are now 13-10, +12.11 units on the season. Next season, I think I’m going to include these as official plays. Here’s what we’ve got for Week 12.
- Michael Carter +145 (DraftKings)
- Tee Higgins +130 (FanDuel)
- Rachaad White -105 (FanDuel)