There are two ways to play fantasy football. You can play it safe, or you can swing for the fences. It’s always risky to chase outliers, but outliers are how we separate from our competitors.
With that in mind, we’re going through bold fantasy takes for every NFL team, with this installment looking at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Bold Prediction: Chris Godwin Outscores Mike Evans
Just one year ago, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had comparable ADPs. Interestingly enough, Godwin was the guy being drafted first.
After Evans went out and posted a WR1 season while Godwin fell to low-WR3 territory, fantasy managers are now convinced Evans is the superior option, drafting Evans at WR18 and Godwin at WR35.
In 2022, Evans averaged 15.0 PPG, with Godwin at 14.9 PPG. In 2021, Godwin averaged 17.3 PPG, almost a full point more than Evans.
Fantasy managers are very susceptible to recency bias. What’s stopping Godwin from doing exactly what he did in 2022 or 2021?
In 2022, he ran 57.6% of his routes from the slot. Dating back to 2019, his slot rate has been over 50% each year. Last season, he was there just 32.1% of the time. Reports out of Bucs camp heavily suggest Godwin will be utilized in the slot more frequently, meaning he might be one of the best values of the season.
Chris Godwin Fantasy Profile
It could be easy to view Godwin’s 2023 season as a disappointment after finishing as a top-20 WR for two straight seasons. Yet, his plummet all the way to WR29 last year may be a bit overblown.
Godwin caught just 83 passes for 1,024 yards on 130 targets last year. All three of those marks ranked inside the top 25 amongst wide receivers. It was really Godwin’s two touchdowns — which was his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2017 — that felt like the biggest disappointment last season.
If you couldn’t tell, there’s a touch of sarcastic exaggeration when I use the word “plummet” to describe Godwin’s production in 2023. He was still a useful fantasy asset who managed to finish strong last year.
I’ve yet to hear an argument where Godwin isn’t still slated to see 100+ targets in 2024. A potential move back to the slot on a full-time basis, which is where he’s done his best fantasy work during his career, should help give him legit WR2 upside this upcoming season.
Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Chris Godwin right here.
Mike Evans Fantasy Profile
It’s only natural to worry about production for a veteran as the season wears on, but Evans was at his best in Tampa Bay’s final game of the season (eight catches for 147 yards and a touchdown in a playoff loss in Detroit).
- Evans: 79 catches on 136 targets for 1,255 yards
- Chris Godwin: 83 catches on 130 targets for 1,024 yards
Both final stat lines point to a viable connection with Mayfield, though it should be noted that while Evans clicked with the new signal-caller right away, Godwin didn’t find his stride until the final four games (25 catches for 365 yards). That’s a minor red flag for those looking to invest in Evans — he caught just 17 passes for 235 yards during that run.
Naturally, you can read that one of two ways. Either Godwin’s production helped take defensive attention off of Evans to open this season, or Godwin is poised to lead this pass-catching core in opportunities, thus making Evans a player with a wide range of weekly outcomes.
I don’t doubt that Evans’ stat line at the end of the season will be something close to what we’ve come to expect (1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns), but I’m skeptical about how we get there.
Godwin led this team in red-zone targets last season (16 to Evans’ 14), and if the 6’5” WR1 isn’t dominating that target share, a decline in touchdown equity could make for some frustrating weeks.
Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Mike Evans right here.