To win any fantasy football league, you have to balance taking risks and playing it safe.
Take too many risks, and you could be inconsistent week-to-week. But play it too safe, and you may not have the ceiling to win in the crucial moments.
Each fantasy manager has a different way to balance those two sides. Some take a number of calculated risks, while others like to take one or two bigger risks and hope they pay off. That is where our bold predictions come in.
None of them are likely to occur, but all of them are plausible. Realistically, you only want to take a shot at one or two of these things happening, but they can also show you a potential ceiling opportunity for the players listed.
What Are Our Bold Predictions for All 16 NFC Teams?
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner Fends Off Trey Benson All Season and Finishes as an RB1
I’m pretty sure James Conner has outperformed his average draft position (ADP) every year of his career. What does this guy have to do to get some respect?
Last season, Conner was written off as injury-prone. He was playing on a bad team that we knew would be without its starting quarterback for at least half of the season.
Although five dismal games were mixed in, Conner finished as an RB1 six times, including each week of the fantasy playoffs.
Yes, the Cardinals drafted Trey Benson in the third round. But let’s not pretend like that’s elite draft capital. Everything we’ve heard from Arizona’s camp suggests Conner will have the same role he had last season.
He may get hurt, see Benson ball out, and watch the Cardinals decide to turn the page and hand the keys to the rookie. But what if Conner stays healthy? He’ll now have a full season with Kyler Murray. Last season, he averaged 18.26 fantasy points per game with Murray against 11.88 without him.
Conner is going as the RB19 in fantasy drafts. His ceiling outcome is top six. If Murray is as good as I think he will be, Conner just might get there.
Atlanta Falcons: Drake London Finishes as the Overall WR1
The fantasy community believes in Drake London’s talent as much as I do. That’s evident from the fact that this guy — who has never finished inside the top 40 wide receivers — is being drafted inside the top 12 at the position this year.
The community believes London will benefit massively from the QB and coaching upgrade. But overall WR1? That’s a bridge too far…or is it?
Kirk Cousins propelled Justin Jefferson to overall WR1 numbers. Is London as good as Jefferson? No. But London is definitely talented. What if this offense fires on all cylinders?
There are seven wide receivers I believe are capable of finishing as the overall WR1. London is the cheapest among them. Is it unbelievable for London to catch 110 passes for 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns?
Carolina Panthers: Jonathon Brooks Assumes a 3-Down Role By Midseason and Posts RB1 Numbers Over the Second Half
Currently, Jonathon Brooks’ ADP is RB26. To be fair, that’s largely injury-related. Brooks is recovering from a torn ACL and is not guaranteed to play in Week 1. He certainly won’t be back to 100% when the season starts. Plus, he’s a rookie.
At the same time, Brooks is talented. He could’ve crept into the first round had he not gotten hurt. What if he has a Breece Hall-like recovery? In that scenario, Brooks is pretty much back to himself by midseason.
Imagine a world where Bryce Young takes a step forward, making this offense better as a whole. Brooks easily supplants Chuba Hubbard as the lead back and is just too good to keep off the field. He averages 20 touches per game from Week 9 onward and propels fantasy managers who took a chance on him in the middle rounds to championships.
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams Becomes the First Rookie QB in NFL History To Support 2 Fantasy WR1s
Before he even set foot on an NFL field, Caleb Williams made history. No top draft pick has ever walked into as good of an offensive situation as Williams has with the new-look Bears.
Williams is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. What if the hype is real? In this scenario, Williams has a rookie season even better than C.J. Stroud’s 2023. Not only does DJ Moore pay off at his WR22 ADP, but Keenan Allen does, too, in an even bigger way given his WR30 ADP.
Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb Tops Cooper Kupp’s 2021 Season
In 2021, Cooper Kupp averaged 25.9 fantasy points per game. It is the greatest fantasy season by a WR of all time. If anyone is ever going to top it, CeeDee Lamb in 2024 fits the bill.
Lamb could not be better positioned for a truly monster season. The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the league. Lamb is the unquestioned No. 1 WR, and they have very little in the way of offensive threats beyond him. Their running backs are an old, declining Ezekiel Elliott and a rotational back in Rico Dowdle. This is going to be a pass-heavy offense.
What if the run game is so abysmal that the Cowboys let Dak Prescott attempt nearly 700 passes? Lamb averaged 23.7 PPG last season. He needs 2.3 PPG more to overtake Kupp. If he can turn last year’s 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns into 150 catches for 1,900 yards and 16 touchdowns, plus a little extra on the ground, he can do it.
Detroit Lions: 3 Lions Finish No. 1 Overall at Their Positions
It’s almost impossible for this prediction to come to fruition. There’s only one football. For three Lions to get there without one being the quarterback, they would all need elite volume and elite efficiency.
Last year, though, Sam LaPorta averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game, just 0.5 PPG behind overall TE1 Travis Kelce. Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 20.7 ppg, just 3.0 PPG behind overall WR1 CeeDee Lamb. Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 16.1 PPG; he’s the toughest one because of the presence of David Montgomery. Gibbs did not come close to Christian McCaffrey’s 24.5 ppg.
How does it happen? LaPorta and St. Brown can have mostly repeats of their 2023 seasons and get there. They just need the league average to drop a bit. Gibbs is trickier, but here’s the path. What if David Montgomery gets hurt, allowing Gibbs to see a larger workload?
In this case, the increase in volume would not impact his efficiency. He then achieves his goal of being a 1,000/1,000 player en route to a historic year.
Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson Stays Healthy and Finishes as a WR1
My favorite archetype of receiver to invest in is the sophomore receiver coming off a very efficient rookie year. That led me to Drake London and Christian Watson last season. It didn’t work out.
What if I was just a year early? There’s a reason Watson was highly touted last season. He averaged 11.7 fantasy points per game as a rookie on limited volume.
Last season, Watson averaged 11.3 PPG. He wasn’t much worse, but he just couldn’t stay healthy. We’ve since found out the root cause of the issue — asymmetry with his hamstrings. Unfortunately, he has already hurt his hamstring this year, so hopefully he can avoid another occurrence of this injury.
Jordan Love has emerged as one of the better QBs in the league. Say he takes another step forward while Watson stays healthy, and the two develop a strong rapport, and Watson establishes himself as the Packers’ top receiver. Catching 70 passes for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns puts him in contention to be a WR1 and is within the range of outcomes.
Los Angeles Rams: Blake Corum Is a Top-5 Running Back Over the Second Half of the Season
Last year, Kyren Williams came out of nowhere to finish as the overall RB2. He was a true three-down back and was able to turn his massive volume into elite production.
However, Williams is not a special player. He’s good enough to win, and he’s in a great situation with elite opportunity. What if Blake Corum were in that role instead of Williams? I think he can produce close to the same numbers.
All it would take is for Williams to get hurt and miss extended time If that happens, Williams may not return to his previous role, and Corum would be off to the races as an elite RB1.
Minnesota Vikings: Ty Chandler Outscores Aaron Jones
It appears the fantasy community has decided that Aaron Jones is the clear RB1, and Ty Chandler is just a backup. Look no further than the 31-spot positional gap between the two as evidence.
Jones has never really been a heavy-volume guy, so Chandler is going to play more than his RB49 ADP suggests. What if this is a true timeshare? A 55/45 split. Then, what if Jones, who struggled to get over a lingering hamstring strain, nearing his 30th birthday, once again can’t stay on the field?
I still believe in Jones’ talent. That’s not the issue. What will doom him, if anything, is his ability to stay healthy. There’s a much higher chance that Chandler outperforms Jones than their prices suggest.
New Orleans Saints: Rashid Shaheed Finishes as a Fantasy WR2
Every fantasy manager to ever exist would sign for a WR2 finish from a player being drafted as the WR58, which is where Rashid Shaheed has been going.
The Saints have a very consolidated target share. Their only two truly reliable pass catchers are Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. But the ball has to go somewhere else, those two aren’t going to combine for an 80% target share. This year, Shaheed sure looks like he will be an every-down player, starting in two-receiver sets.
Per TruMedia, he averaged 2.07 yards per route run against man coverage. His speed gives defenses problems. If Derek Carr can be just a little more accurate on his deep balls, Shaheed has the potential to be a league-winner at his ADP.
New York Giants: Devin Singletary ‘Volumes’ His Way to a High-RB2 Finish
Fantasy managers can acquire the services of Devin Singletary for the low cost of RB36. Who wouldn’t love their low-RB3 to produce mid-RB2 or better numbers?
During training camp, every player is the best, especially rookies — especially Day 3 rookies. Every Day 3 running back darling shows out and seems ready to threaten the starter. That’s where we’re at with Tyrone Tracy Jr.
But Tracy is still a fifth-round rookie, while Devin Singletary is coming off a season where he went from seldom-used backup to taking Dameon Pierce’s job. Now, he’s reunited with his former offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll.
I am extremely confident that Daniel Jones will get benched at some point this season, likely in the early going. Drew Lock is less mobile than Jones and more apt to check the ball down to Singletary. We could be looking at 13-15 carries and 3-4 targets per game for Singletary. It won’t be pretty, but Singletary could end up being an incredible value at cost this season.
Philadelphia Eagles: DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown Both Finish as WR1s
Is this bold enough? Eh, let’s roll with it. Yes, DeVonta Smith did average 15.0 fantasy points per game in 2022, putting him perilously close to WR1 territory. But he didn’t get there! Meanwhile, A.J. Brown has finished as the overall WR8 in each of the past two seasons.
I guess this looks bolder when you consider that Smith was merely the overall WR20 last season. Also, how many people think Jalen Hurts can support two fantasy WR1s, especially in light of how he performed as a passer last season? Smith’s ADP certainly doesn’t think so, as he is going around WR22.
It could happen, though. The Eagles coaching staff is well aware that their offense did not perform up to standards over the second half of last season. To help remedy that, they brought in former Cowboys and Chargers coordinator Kellen Moore.
Look for Moore to utilize more pre-snap motion and put both Brown and Smith in advantageous positions as frequently as possible. He is going to make it easy for Hurts to find Philadelphia’s top two pass catchers, propelling both to WR1 seasons.
San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk Finishes Outside the Top 24
This is the bear case for Brandon Aiyuk. He’s one of the most talented wide receivers in the league. He also plays in an offense that moves slowly and doesn’t throw the ball. As a result, Aiyuk has to rely on elite efficiency. That’s a dangerous bet to make in fantasy.
Last season, Aiyuk averaged 3.18 yards per route run, third in the league. He was second in yards per target and yards per reception.
Just two short years ago, he finished as the overall WR23. He wasn’t noticeably worse at football. He just wasn’t as efficient, only averaging 2.09 yards per route run and 13.0 yards per reception (4.9 fewer than 2023).
Aiyuk can still be really good at football and underwhelm fantasy managers in 2024. All it would take is for the 49ers to be the same offense they were last year, Aiyuk to see a slight tick down from his 25% target share, and his per reception efficiency to drop to 2022 levels.
Seattle Seahawks: DK Metcalf Finally Realizes His True Form and Finishes as a Top-5 WR
Ever since his breakout 2020 season, fantasy managers have been waiting for DK Metcalf to become an every-week WR1. After averaging 17.0 fantasy points per game in 2020, Metcalf has been between 13.3 and 14.4 ever since.
Metcalf is still an incredibly talented receiver. He just hasn’t had the right combination of play-calling and quarterback play. This could be the year everything comes together.
The Seahawks moved on from Pete Carroll, bringing in a defensive head coach in Mike Macdonald. He hired former University of Washington OC Ryan Grubb to run the offense. Grubb likes to push the ball downfield. Do you know who is built to dominate downfield? A 6’3″ specimen of a human who runs a 4.33 40-time at 228 pounds.
Metcalf’s WR18 ADP could look mighty low as early as October.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chris Godwin Outscores Mike Evans
Just one year ago, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had comparable ADPs. Interestingly enough, Godwin was the guy being drafted first.
After Evans went out and posted a WR1 season while Godwin fell to low-WR3 territory, fantasy managers are now convinced Evans is the superior option, drafting Evans at WR18 and Godwin at WR35.
In 2022, Evans averaged 15.0 PPG, with Godwin at 14.9 PPG. In 2021, Godwin averaged 17.3 PPG, almost a full point more than Evans.
Fantasy managers are very susceptible to recency bias. What’s stopping Godwin from doing exactly what he did in 2022 or 2021?
In 2022, he ran 57.6% of his routes from the slot. Dating back to 2019, his slot rate has been over 50% each year. Last season, he was there just 32.1% of the time. Reports out of Bucs camp heavily suggest Godwin will be utilized in the slot more frequently, meaning he might be one of the best values of the season.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels Finishes Inside the Top 5 Fantasy QBs
I don’t think this is even that bold. But since Jayden Daniels is being drafted as the QB13, a top-five finish has to count.
How can Daniels get inside the top five? It’s not that far-fetched; he just needs to run like he did in college.
In his final year at LSU, Daniels ran 135 times for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns. If Daniels can average over 50 rushing yards per game, he would just need to have reasonably good touchdown variance to get there. Why can’t Daniels have a season like 2011 Cam Newton?