There are two ways to play fantasy football. You can play it safe, or you can swing for the fences. It’s always risky to chase outliers, but outliers are how we separate from our competitors.
With that in mind, we’re going through bold fantasy takes for every NFL team, with this installment looking at the New Orleans Saints.
New Orleans Saints Bold Fantasy Prediction: Rashid Shaheed Finishes as a Fantasy WR2
Every fantasy manager to ever exist would sign for a WR2 finish from a player being drafted as the WR58, which is where Rashid Shaheed has been going.
The Saints have a very consolidated target share. Their only two truly reliable pass catchers are Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. But the ball has to go somewhere else, those two aren’t going to combine for an 80% target share. This year, Shaheed sure looks like he will be an every-down player, starting in two-receiver sets.
Per TruMedia, he averaged 2.07 yards per route run against man coverage. His speed gives defenses problems. If Derek Carr can be just a little more accurate on his deep balls, Shaheed has the potential to be a league-winner at his ADP.
Rashid Shaheed Fantasy Profile
On the surface, Shaheed’s 10.4 fantasy points per game seem unimpressive. However, digging deeper reveals that there’s definitely something here. The question is whether the Saints can fully unlock it.
Shaheed wasn’t the Saints’ full-time WR2 in 2023. He played only 46% of the snaps and saw a mere 14.3% target share. His efficiency allowed him to produce WR4 numbers.
Shaheed’s best skill is his speed. As a result, he frequently sees downfield targets, as evidenced by his 14.6-yard average depth of target. Impressively, despite seeing so many deep targets, Shaheed was able to post a 61.3% catch rate. His 9.6 yards per target and 15.6 yards per reception ranked 17th and 15th, respectively. Pretty impressive for a part-time player.
With Shaheed being a 2022 UDFA, he had a lot of work to do to get himself into a stable role. Now, with Michael Thomas gone, it appears he’s locked in as the team’s WR2.
Derek Carr did not play particularly well last season, but he’s far from the league’s worst quarterback. Behind Olave, there’s room for a secondary option in this passing game. The Saints certainly would prefer Carr not to check down to Alvin Kamara nearly as much.
If Shaheed simply plays more snaps, his target share will naturally increase. With increased volume likely comes a decrease in efficiency. However, a guy like Shaheed is built to always be more efficient than the average NFL WR.
Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Rashid Shaheed right here.